Serabi Gold (LSE: SRB, TSX: SBI) – A Big Step Forward?

SERABI GOLD
  • LSE: SRB
  • Shares Outstanding: 58.91M
  • Share price GB£0.76 (21.01.2020)
  • Market Cap: GB£44M

Gold is a hot commodity at the moment, and promising juniors like Brazil-based gold exploration and production company Serabi Gold have been a central focus for many investors. Serabi Gold has been trying to create a positive outcome for investors from its debt situation for over a year. However, according to today’s press release, they seem to have reached a solution. What sort of package has been formulated and how will this impact investors?

The Background

With gold now sitting at c. $1560/oz, many gold companies reaped the rewards and performed reasonably well last year. However, Serabi’s trebled share price in less than 6 months during 2019 is something of an anomaly; it seems to dispute the notion that Serabi Gold has simply benefited from a good year for gold, or has just recovered well from the sale of shares from two key investors. There appears to be more to this story.

In terms of productions figures, last year Serabi Gold broke the 40,000oz mark for the first time ever with grades of well over 6g/t from Palito Gold Mine. In addition, 5 out of their last 6 quarters have seen them reach 10,000oz. This level of consistent, strong performance is rare in junior mining companies; most trip over many hurdles before attaining stable productivity.

Serabi seems to have hit the ground running, and with the imminent introduction of an ore-sorter that is currently being calibrated on-site, Serabi will hope to see its production capacity increase further. This will be courtesy of liberated processing space at their plant. The ore-sorter will reduce the amount of ore going into the processor, and increase gold output, to see a 10-15% rise in production with the equivalent rise in mining costs but no increase in production cost.

A photo of Serabi Gold's Palito Gold Mine
Palito Gold Mine

However, this is all a long way off. Serabi has been drilling at San Chico for 2 months, performing step-out drilling and extensions to current mine limits. Deep underground drilling and strike at surface drilling will continue into Q2. Geophysical anomalies first discovered in 2018 now finally have a drill rig assigned to them and a resource update is expected by the end of Q2. Investors will want to see the share price rise again.

If everything goes to plan, this means Serabi Gold could see an increase in its US$6-7M revenue to add to the US$14M cash that sits in its coffers at present. However, Palito can only take Serabi’s share price so far. In order to gain access to a higher-grade resource, increase production, and reduce its AISC, Serabi’s Coringa Gold Project needs to be brought into production. How will this financial restructuring free up the Serabi’s management team to make decisions in 2020?

The Debt Package

The encouraging story of Serabi Gold has always had something of an Achilles heel. Serabi’s debt to Sprott Lending Partnership, c. US$6.5M, and Equinox Gold Corp., US$12M, has been something of an elephant in the room.

We imagine one option Serabi may have considered would be the standard route of raising equity, but this isn’t the option they have taken; perhaps Coringa’s status, at a PEA stage without significant underground development, may have deterred some potential investors. The solution Serabi has opted for is US$12M of convertible notes with existing shareholder Greenstone Resources, which will enable them to pay back Equinox. The remaining debt owed to Sprott will be settled from cash reserves. The convertible loan is a flexible arrangement that enables Greenstone to be repaid via cash or shares at their own discretion. Based on the terms set out in their release, conversion of the convertible loan notes would see Greenstone’s stake in Serabi Gold potentially rise to 37.8%. Will large shareholders Megeve Investments be happy? Is this good for liquidity in the long run? We shall see.

Investors will be happy to see dilution warded off, but a convertible loan can still lead down this path at the end of the 16-month term.

Coringa – Full Speed Ahead

With this loan in place, Serabi Gold can now look to push forward with the development of Coringa. It has not just been an inability to spend that has held Serabi back on this front; the collapse of the Valé tailings dam, in Brumadinho, Brazil in January 2019, meant mining companies had to spend a great deal of 2019 adjusting their tailings plans to create safer, more environmentally friendly dry-tailings arrangements. Serabi were not immune from this requirement. This also delayed Coringa’s preliminary permit hearing, because of the need to complete a new Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA).

However, with the tailings issue resolved and payments to Sprott and Equinox settled, Serabi will no doubt look to replicate their success at Palito. On the face of things, this does appear to be a bit of a rinse and repeat story. Coringa is geophysically and metallurgically similar to Palito, but with a higher grade of 8.34g/t. This is reliable, consistent and relentless underground mining which is exactly what Serabi has been demonstrating for the last couple of years.

Serabi’s team says Coringa is close with their preliminary licence, a hearing scheduled for the 6th February. Serabi claims to have worked with the local community to ensure the project will run in an environmentally and socially sound manner; the indigenous communities in the area have signaled their approval for the development.

Serabi now has plenty to do; the management team is certainly going to be busy! They will likely use their freed-up cash flow to bring Coringa through to production by Q1/21, with the target of a combined, cross-mine AISC of c.$950. Investors will want to see eventual production double. Until then, it remains to be seen exactly how this debt arrangement pans out and if Serabi Gold has what it takes to get Coringa up and running. History would suggest they do, but this is mining. Let’s remain quietly upbeat. There’s a long way to go.

CLICK HERE to read the full press release.

If you see something in this article that you agree with, or even disagree with, please let us know in the comments below.

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A cartoon man, dressed in a shirt and tie, cuts himself free from the shackles of debt.

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